What If?

What if the Gankands had not fallen? It is an interesting thought and one which not many have considered, but let us see what might have been through deduction and logic. For such a thing to have occurred, I feel that only minor alterations to the progression of events need be made, with Prussoia not taking as strong of an interest in the insults and threats of that southern land and the Imperium choosing in their ever present duplicity to aid our enemies.

It is a new 1872, the Imperium while not entering the war on either side is supplying the Gankanders with guns, bombs, and even more terrible chemical weapons. The First War of the Coalition is now under way with the Raikh, Moderal, and the Tholes standing against the tyranny of the Gankands but betrayed by a Divinian knife in the back.

Naval operations begin as they did in our timeline, but already things have changed. Moderali ships try to enforce a blockade of the region but are met and seen off every time by the Imperium's fleet. This inability to cut off vital war supplies allows the Gankander leadership more freedom to act, with them choosing to instead of do their insane withdrawal from the borders and then surprise attacks, dig into positions and trust in their internal supply networks to be able to sustain a prolonged war of attrition against the invading forces. 

Moderali impotence at sea confounds this issue, with their fleet becoming disheartened by the slow progress on land. One of their vessels forcibly stops a Divinian ship and through their panic cause it to sink. This incident flames tensions between the Imperium and Moderal and the Moderali are sent an ultimatum to withdraw from the war or face the wrath of the Imperium. Due to their far inferior forces and the slow progress of the war on land as trench warfare sets in, the Moderali betray the Coalition and withdraw from the war, likely paying some tribute to the Imperium and the Gankands.

With the threat of an intervention by the Imperium on the horizon, neither the Tholish nor Raikh's navy would be able to commit sufficient forces to the southern war. Large numbers of ships would be kept further north in anticipation of the war expanding to one between the great powers, leading to the now greatly reduced Coalition Fleet being kept even with the Gankander one. While still able to land troops, the Coalition is unable to attain total naval supremacy in the region, with periodic sorties from the Gankands and trade being disrupted in that region.

As the year wears on, the land forces begin making progress and pushing east from the western shore. Despite the tropical conditions and the enemy possessing greater numbers of the backing of another state, the superior quality of the Raikhmen and Tholes would shine through. Inch by inch, trenches would be taken and fortifications cracked, but at great cost. I do believe that due to the nature of this war, both sides would come to use chemical weapons, as the evilness of the Gankanders and Divinians would be required to fight them.

Large troop numbers would likely be built up during the Fall, allowing for a great winter offensive to take place. I would predict the usage of massed artillery and chemical weapons would play a prominent role in this offensive, with the enemy being overwhelmed by the material superiority of the Coalition. This would likely cause the Divinians to panic and send volunteers to back their puppets and they would also likely extend financial loans to them, so as to not lose any debts already incurred. These actions would have a marked effect.

The war's slow progress would likely ground to a halt, with many thouands dying on both sides. I predict that worsening tensions between the Coalition and the Imperium would persist for years afterwards and that the war would turn into a stalemate, likely lasting three or four years with both sides digging in. It is from this stalemate that disaster would likely spring. A revolt within the Raikh!

With so many of the Raikh's loyal men fighting and dying overseas, the Georgist revolts would likely have started earlier and the government would have been overthrown with so many good men fighting for the Hauhkuno elsewhere. In its stead would rise a nightmarish society, one where the peasants live under charismatic dictators and warlords who would rise to power on empty promises and have no regard for the rule of law nor the natural order of things. Not only would the good people of the Raikh suffer, but such a disruption would surely damage the stability and economy of the Tholes too.

That said, I would not predict that the Tholes would fall victim to such a terrible fate as well. With this new 1876, I believe that those still loyal and true would cross over into the Tholish lands and seek to live there, making them more civilised in the process. I see it as only natural, as the Tholish royal house is the most closely related to our own and has divine blood as well, though no gods living.

With the loss of the Raikh, the Tholes would be forced to withdraw from the war, leaving the Gankands with a battle hardened army and its navy largely intact. This would simply spell the doom of the Moderali and the Imperium. While the Raikh would be in a state of unnatural anarchy, the Tholes would likely become stronger from the influx of new blood and would become more centralised in my view, likely even choosing to elect a new Hauhkuno from the Grewz-Haare line. This state, reeling from its defeat and the loss of its only true ally, would likely become increasingly militaristic with the military supplanting the civilian government below the Hauhkuno and possibly even embarking on a quest to unite all the German peoples under one true Raikh.

Further east, the Gankanders would likely default on their debts, choosing instead to take their new found wealth and prestige and begin using it to predate on their neighbours. Economically hurting, alone, and without friends, the Imperium would likely enter into a state of decline and be too weak to kill the monster that they had birthed in the Gankands. After a decade or so of preparation, I predict the Gankanders would have likely have launched invasions of the Moderali lands and quickly folded them, seeing it as revenge for their initial part in the Coalition. The 1880's would be a period of rapid Gankander expansion on that continent, likely culminating in the Imperium becoming a puppet-state after the fall of Moderal.

By the 1890's, I believe that the new Tholish Raikh would have already have conquered the Heelish and brought the Sheenish into the fold, with Rashad, Noreska, and Ymir being the subjects of civilisation efforts with plans to integrate them into the greater Raikh. Pruossia, seeing the fate that befell the Imperium, would have no choice but to join the new Raikh and would likely become a centre of military build up, as it would be the main staging ground for an epic series of wars over the centre of the continent. The old Raikh would slowly be brought back to sense, with Tholish backed military expeditions claiming back territories over time and repairing the great damages wrought by the peasants.

By 1900, I see there being only two real powers in the world. The United German Empire under the Grewz-Haare Hauhkuno and its satellite states and the Gankander Empire in the east, likely absorbing all the Latin states and placing them under their yoke. Rather than some titanic war, I believe we would enter into a state of cold-war, with proxy wars sparking up between the two powers and the world eventually being carved up by them. The Celtic heartlands of Placidia would likely play host to terrible battles between client-kings, but I believe that neither side would be willing to engage the other until a decisive advantage could be secured. I suspect that advantage might be truly efficient flying machines called aeroplanes, which are being developed by the Tholes in our own timeline. I see these revolutionising the nature of warfare unlike airships and leading to one great world war in the 1920's or 1930's, resulting in the entire world likely falling under the sway of the United German Empire.