Post by Arnold Colston-Westbrook on Apr 17, 2022 6:36:18 GMT
Report C-16
Confidential
Authorised Eyes ONLY
This report is the current estimation of the current factions within the Kaskader Civil War, basic information, and their territorial extent as of 12/01/1906.
(Fig. 1 Current Estimation of the Territorial extent of all major armies/states/warlords)
Analysis
Pellian United Republic (Light Blue)
Leader: Commodore Rupert Culpepper
Capital: Port Roberts
Allegiance: Neutral (former), Pellian Faction Leader
Notes: If we can leverage them away from the Kaskaders as an independent republic under our supervision it will be great bases against the Sadalers.
Moderal is known to be supporting the state, making political domination difficult.
Open to trade
Verdict: Potential candidate for support
The Northern Command (Blue)
Leader: Robert Forsyth (former), Justin Brewer (current)
Capital: Unknown
Allegiance: Republic Hardliners (former), Unknown (former), Pellian (current)
Notes: This new leader needs to reveal his intentions before we can decide upon actions to take.
Sadaler and Moderali support is known to be present within the state.
It is unknown if their allegiance with the Pellian faction is due to convenience or ideological similarity.
Verdict: Potential candidate for support
Church of Heavenly Mandates (Orange)
Leader: Unknown
Capital: Unknown
Allegiance: Unknown
Notes: Little information comes out of this area and more investigation is required to determine the potential of this faction.
Verdict: Investigate
Socialist Republic of Kaskader (Red)
Leader: Jamie Steele
Capital: Cultertown
Allegiance: Communism
Notes: Kill them immediately before this can spread further
Verdict: Eliminate
The Kaskadian Black Army (Black)
Leader: None
Capital: Unknown
Allegiance: Anarchism
Notes: It is unknown if the Black Army remains a major fighting force within the Kaskader Civil War as forces under the Socialist
Republic have entered Anarchist territory and defeated local Anarchist resistance.
Verdict:Eliminate Inactive
Kaskadian Republic (Green)
Leader: Charles W. Fairbairn
Capital: Sykes Bay
Allegiance: Republican Faction Leader
Notes: Probably equal to the Pellian Republic in compatibility with our government. Ensuring their victory is essential to security on the
continent.
Verdict: Support
Kaskader Duchy/Kaskader Union (Purple/Lavender)
Leader: Jonathan von Sykes
Capital: Fort Clements
Allegiance: Monarchist Faction Leader
Notes: Very corrupt and unstable government making their success and continued existence, despite their control over major
industrial centers, uncertain.
While their autocratic government form makes them the easiest to control, their actions in starting this civil war make them
deeply unpopular with the people, and a greater effort to support in the long term.
Verdict: Potential candidate for support
Analysis
There are four major factions within the Kaskader Civil war, these being the Republicans, Monarchists, Pellians, and Socialists, most made up of more than one autonomous forces.
Republican
The Republican faction is currently only made up of the forces loyal to the Kaskadian Republic, with the Northern Command having changed sides after the ousting of Robert Forsyth. The Republicans are popular throughout the west and can count on large numbers of recruits, but they lack both the material and industrial capabilities to properly arm their troops.
It is our analysis that backing the Kaskader Republic is currently the best option. If construction of Narundan owned production facilites are established and/or deliveries of war material be made in exchange for political concessions, it may be possible to dominate any postwar Republican government. Furthermore high popular support will mean that postwar security efforts will be minimised, reducing long term costs.
Monarchist
The Monarchist faction is by far the most unstable and least popular. Only made up of the Kaskader Union/Kaskader Duchy, a deeply unstable reigeme which has gone through multiple purges already with immense public mistrust, victory for this faction would require immense outside support. Furthermore, being led by and wishing to install former Divinian aristocrats, domination of this faction, while easier than the Republican faction due to their democratic principles, would be far from uncomplicated. While controling many major population centers, the sheer unpopularity of the faction makes their chances of victory, as of now, insignificant.
Potential for supporting other forces present within Monarchist territory is present but would require significant effort to mature.
Backing the Monarchist faction is possible but is, by our analysis, not the best option.
Pellian
The Pellian faction is currently the most powerful faction within the Kaskader Civil War. The Pellians have a similar republican outlook to the true Republican faction but view the leadership of Charles W. Fairbairn as too authoritarian, and as such have broken away. It is unknown the true motives of the Pellian faction as the primary force, The Pellian United Republic from which the faction recieves its name, seeks to establish an independent nation separate to whichever force wins the Civil War. However their ally in The Northern Command, currently ruled by a former Dunwikki Mercenary, is seemingly seeking to become the legitimate Kaskader government with the rest of the Pellian forces supporting them in this effort.
While the Pellian faction would be the best faction to support, their current advantage, being mostly sufficent in material and industrial capability, and support from other outside forces, primarily the Moderali, would reduce their reliance on us and therefore the amount of influence we would have over the eventual postwar governments.
Splitting the Pellian faction could be possible but would greatly weaken their power.
Due to this, backing the Pellian faction is possible but is not the best option.
Socialist
The Socialist faction is made up of the Socialist Republic of Kaskader and presumably some remmnants of the Kaskadian Black Army who have sworn allegience to the Socialist cause. This faction is deeply antithetical to our beliefs and a terrible choice for support. The Sadalers have sent non-military aid to the Socialist Republic but as of yet have not provided military aid in any form. The socialist faction has some support amongst the populous but lacks material to fuel their war effort.
The Socialist faction must be destroyed as soon as possible.
Recommendations
It is hereby reccomended that overtures to the Republican faction be made immediately and, if accepted, forces and aid should be dispatched at the earliest possible convenience. Attempts to secure dominance over the government should be made through bribery, debt traps, or other means should be made if the domination of the future Kaskader state is desired. If not, support should be made and an eventual alliance cemented along with good bilateral relations and treaties.
If domination of the future Kaskader state is not desired, or the Republican Faction refuses support, efforts should be made to court the Pellian faction. Their support from the Moderali will mean that theu are friendly with the Latin League, reducing their possibility of joining Sadaler controled international organisations and predisposing them to good relations with us.
If both aforementioned factions refuse, or total domination of the future Kaskader state is desired, support for the Monarchist faction should be pursued. Supporting this faction would be the most costly and time sensitive/intensive. The sheer amount of support required for the victory of this faction would give us immense leverage over any postwar Monarchist government. Potential for a coup supported by our forces to reduce unpopularity and instability within the Monarchist faction should be investigated and emplyed if required.
In any case, the Socialist faction must be destroyed before they manage to properly secure their position.
In general, the deployment of rougly 30,000 troops is reccomended, with troops from the Army Ground Forces Command (Alpine Command especially), Army Marine Forces Command, and internal security detachments from Territorial Security Forces Command present. Only minimal naval forces are required as the pre-war Kaskader Navy is insignificant and outdated.
Action must be taken quickly however as the civil war could alter rapidly.
Confidential
Authorised Eyes ONLY
This report is the current estimation of the current factions within the Kaskader Civil War, basic information, and their territorial extent as of 12/01/1906.
(Fig. 1 Current Estimation of the Territorial extent of all major armies/states/warlords)
Analysis
Pellian United Republic (Light Blue)
Leader: Commodore Rupert Culpepper
Capital: Port Roberts
Allegiance: Neutral (former), Pellian Faction Leader
Notes: If we can leverage them away from the Kaskaders as an independent republic under our supervision it will be great bases against the Sadalers.
Moderal is known to be supporting the state, making political domination difficult.
Open to trade
Verdict: Potential candidate for support
The Northern Command (Blue)
Leader: Robert Forsyth (former), Justin Brewer (current)
Capital: Unknown
Allegiance: Republic Hardliners (former), Unknown (former), Pellian (current)
Notes: This new leader needs to reveal his intentions before we can decide upon actions to take.
Sadaler and Moderali support is known to be present within the state.
It is unknown if their allegiance with the Pellian faction is due to convenience or ideological similarity.
Verdict: Potential candidate for support
Church of Heavenly Mandates (Orange)
Leader: Unknown
Capital: Unknown
Allegiance: Unknown
Notes: Little information comes out of this area and more investigation is required to determine the potential of this faction.
Verdict: Investigate
Socialist Republic of Kaskader (Red)
Leader: Jamie Steele
Capital: Cultertown
Allegiance: Communism
Notes: Kill them immediately before this can spread further
Verdict: Eliminate
The Kaskadian Black Army (Black)
Leader: None
Capital: Unknown
Allegiance: Anarchism
Notes: It is unknown if the Black Army remains a major fighting force within the Kaskader Civil War as forces under the Socialist
Republic have entered Anarchist territory and defeated local Anarchist resistance.
Verdict:
Kaskadian Republic (Green)
Leader: Charles W. Fairbairn
Capital: Sykes Bay
Allegiance: Republican Faction Leader
Notes: Probably equal to the Pellian Republic in compatibility with our government. Ensuring their victory is essential to security on the
continent.
Verdict: Support
Kaskader Duchy/Kaskader Union (Purple/Lavender)
Leader: Jonathan von Sykes
Capital: Fort Clements
Allegiance: Monarchist Faction Leader
Notes: Very corrupt and unstable government making their success and continued existence, despite their control over major
industrial centers, uncertain.
While their autocratic government form makes them the easiest to control, their actions in starting this civil war make them
deeply unpopular with the people, and a greater effort to support in the long term.
Verdict: Potential candidate for support
Analysis
There are four major factions within the Kaskader Civil war, these being the Republicans, Monarchists, Pellians, and Socialists, most made up of more than one autonomous forces.
Republican
The Republican faction is currently only made up of the forces loyal to the Kaskadian Republic, with the Northern Command having changed sides after the ousting of Robert Forsyth. The Republicans are popular throughout the west and can count on large numbers of recruits, but they lack both the material and industrial capabilities to properly arm their troops.
It is our analysis that backing the Kaskader Republic is currently the best option. If construction of Narundan owned production facilites are established and/or deliveries of war material be made in exchange for political concessions, it may be possible to dominate any postwar Republican government. Furthermore high popular support will mean that postwar security efforts will be minimised, reducing long term costs.
Monarchist
The Monarchist faction is by far the most unstable and least popular. Only made up of the Kaskader Union/Kaskader Duchy, a deeply unstable reigeme which has gone through multiple purges already with immense public mistrust, victory for this faction would require immense outside support. Furthermore, being led by and wishing to install former Divinian aristocrats, domination of this faction, while easier than the Republican faction due to their democratic principles, would be far from uncomplicated. While controling many major population centers, the sheer unpopularity of the faction makes their chances of victory, as of now, insignificant.
Potential for supporting other forces present within Monarchist territory is present but would require significant effort to mature.
Backing the Monarchist faction is possible but is, by our analysis, not the best option.
Pellian
The Pellian faction is currently the most powerful faction within the Kaskader Civil War. The Pellians have a similar republican outlook to the true Republican faction but view the leadership of Charles W. Fairbairn as too authoritarian, and as such have broken away. It is unknown the true motives of the Pellian faction as the primary force, The Pellian United Republic from which the faction recieves its name, seeks to establish an independent nation separate to whichever force wins the Civil War. However their ally in The Northern Command, currently ruled by a former Dunwikki Mercenary, is seemingly seeking to become the legitimate Kaskader government with the rest of the Pellian forces supporting them in this effort.
While the Pellian faction would be the best faction to support, their current advantage, being mostly sufficent in material and industrial capability, and support from other outside forces, primarily the Moderali, would reduce their reliance on us and therefore the amount of influence we would have over the eventual postwar governments.
Splitting the Pellian faction could be possible but would greatly weaken their power.
Due to this, backing the Pellian faction is possible but is not the best option.
Socialist
The Socialist faction is made up of the Socialist Republic of Kaskader and presumably some remmnants of the Kaskadian Black Army who have sworn allegience to the Socialist cause. This faction is deeply antithetical to our beliefs and a terrible choice for support. The Sadalers have sent non-military aid to the Socialist Republic but as of yet have not provided military aid in any form. The socialist faction has some support amongst the populous but lacks material to fuel their war effort.
The Socialist faction must be destroyed as soon as possible.
Recommendations
It is hereby reccomended that overtures to the Republican faction be made immediately and, if accepted, forces and aid should be dispatched at the earliest possible convenience. Attempts to secure dominance over the government should be made through bribery, debt traps, or other means should be made if the domination of the future Kaskader state is desired. If not, support should be made and an eventual alliance cemented along with good bilateral relations and treaties.
If domination of the future Kaskader state is not desired, or the Republican Faction refuses support, efforts should be made to court the Pellian faction. Their support from the Moderali will mean that theu are friendly with the Latin League, reducing their possibility of joining Sadaler controled international organisations and predisposing them to good relations with us.
If both aforementioned factions refuse, or total domination of the future Kaskader state is desired, support for the Monarchist faction should be pursued. Supporting this faction would be the most costly and time sensitive/intensive. The sheer amount of support required for the victory of this faction would give us immense leverage over any postwar Monarchist government. Potential for a coup supported by our forces to reduce unpopularity and instability within the Monarchist faction should be investigated and emplyed if required.
In any case, the Socialist faction must be destroyed before they manage to properly secure their position.
In general, the deployment of rougly 30,000 troops is reccomended, with troops from the Army Ground Forces Command (Alpine Command especially), Army Marine Forces Command, and internal security detachments from Territorial Security Forces Command present. Only minimal naval forces are required as the pre-war Kaskader Navy is insignificant and outdated.
Action must be taken quickly however as the civil war could alter rapidly.